The Crook family is trying to ignore one thing hanging over their approaching Hawaiian vacation: the fact that it might not go ahead at all. Granted, it wouldn't be the first time they've revised their plans this year. They initially wanted to go to Cancún, but they scrapped that idea due to unrest in Mexico in February. They instead pivoted to Maui, but the getaway is tentatively on the books. They intentionally booked accommodations with lax cancellation policies, and if they wind up dropping their flights, at least they'll get to keep the airline credit. "Everything's kind of hedged.”
Crook's wife is a teacher, meaning there's little wiggle room for vacations outside the summer months. He does freelance PR, which is more flexible in terms of scheduling but less stable in terms of job security. "The economic uncertainty of being a laptop warrior — as an email professional or a white-collar professional right now — it's just very up in the air," he says. "With everything going on in the economy and the world, we just feel like it's like month to month, what can we do?"
Many Americans are weighing similar issues. It's a complicated moment for travel planning. The United States' war in Iran has caused major travel disruptions in the Middle East, and it's led to a spike in oil prices, making fuel and gas — and therefore flights and drives — more expensive. It's upped anxiety for consumers and workers who are already on edge about inflation, the job market, and a potential recession. Americans aren't exactly feeling the love from foreign hosts as of late, either, given the White House's antagonistic foreign policy stances and general tourism fatigue in some desirable destinations.
With the spring and summer travel seasons upon us, Americans are considering a simpler option: staying local. Taking a getaway without actually getting away can save money, avoid travel chaos, and represent a low-lift, low-stress option for some R&R. When a lot about the world feels uncertain, there's a comforting level of security in sticking close to home. And hey, 11 US cities have World Cup matches, so you may be able to afford tickets instead of an increasingly expensive flight to France.
While he still holds out hope for a Hawaiian holiday, Crook has set a mental deadline of mid-April to decide whether to pull the plug. If he does, there are options closer to home. "We might just be camping a lot this summer, which is fine, right?" he says. While 2025 was the year of the road trip, 2026 may be the year of the staycation.
Some Americans appear to be cooling on international trips, including frequent foreign travelers. People who travel abroad regularly did so less over the past year, citing personal issues, economic uncertainty, and rising travel costs. Third-party air travel bookings from US hubs to major European cities this summer have fallen by 11% compared to last year. (The number of Europeans coming to the US is down even more sharply.)
People aren't just thinking twice about going abroad — they're taking a hard look at where they're going Stateside. For spring break 2026, some people are planning to stick close to home or forgo a trip entirely, due to economic concerns and TSA headaches. While high gas and fuel prices don't appear to be significantly affecting domestic summer travel plans yet, that could change as the warmer months approach, especially if the price at the pump stays elevated.
Many people feel stuck between a rock and a hard place: Do they book a flight now out of fear the cost equation will get worse, or do they hold off and hope for some relief? And if they do eschew the plane ticket, how good will they feel about that July road trip if gas is $4, $5, or $6 a gallon? The outlook is extremely murky, given the ongoing conflict in Iran and its effective blockage of the Strait of Hormuz, the world's most important oil route. Gas prices are already up by $1 per gallon over the past month.
"As long as the situation continues and the Strait of Hormuz sees no meaningful improvement in terms of ships navigating through, gas prices will continue to go up. And there's really not necessarily a ceiling on how high prices will go," he says.
Cruises may not be immune to the economic context, either. Many cruise lines added fuel surcharges in 2008 to offset rising oil prices, and there are concerns they could do so again. One line, in Asia, already has, and it's in the fine print for many cruise lines that they can, whether you've booked already or not. Cruise lines are better prepared to absorb the blow. "They already pre-planned a lot of that stuff, so this way they don't have to raise the prices to accommodate that.”